Our current energy infrastructure is largely based on fossil fuels. This situation is not tenable in the long term. Eventually we will have to change to a sustainable energy infrastructure. Such a change is a transition, a gradual process involving many factors such as technology, policy and even the ‘spirit of the age'.
Anish Patil’s research approaches energy infrastructures as complex sociotechnical systems, i.e. systems that are shaped by interrelated social and technical factors. The aim of his research is to identify these relationships and thus discover the patterns that transitions follow, in order to develop a framework for shaping the course of similar transitions.
The research describes three cases: the district heating system in Delft, the introduction of natural-gas buses in Brisbane (Australia) and the ‘greening of gas’ – an attempt to add hydrogen to natural gas. On the basis of these three cases, Patil has identified two general patterns in the introduction of new sustainable technologies: first, building on existing knowledge and competencies and, second, making a radical break with existing competencies and making a new start.
In order to draw up the framework, Anish analysed, in each of the two patterns, the interaction between three factors: the rules (policy), technology and the actors themselves. These factors affect each other: technology gives rise to certain rules, and actors observe those rules. But actors – and the government in particular – can change the rules, and this in turn can have a direct impact on technology.
The literature on transition management asserts that, as a result of liberalisation, the government has only a limited influence on transitions. But research shows something different: because the government can change the rules (e.g. emission standards), it has a determining role in steering transitions.
Patil’s research also shows that transitions cannot occur without the cooperation of established (‘incumbent’) actors who manage or own the infrastructure. These parties influence the policy process and, without their support, policy implementation is virtually impossible. Policy must therefore be geared to involving incumbents in the transition to sustainable energy infrastructures.
Anish Patil's research is almost complete; he will receive his PhD in 2010.
